Musings from the Manhut

Where the ebb and flow of life creates a cascade of words down the paper's face

Tag: skywarn

SEVERE T-STORM WATCH 301 for most of West Texas Tonight

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 900 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DRYDEN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 300…

DISCUSSION…STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND EAST OF WEST TX/ERN NM DRYLINE WILL LIKELY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX AND NM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL BY EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS DESPITE RATHER AMBIGUOUS/NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. SFC TO 6KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25KT WITH POCKETS NEAR 30KT SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINALLY ORGANIZED AND SOME PERSISTENT CELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST POTENTIAL FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER OUTFLOW DOMINATE CELLS.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23015.

PECOS RIVER RISES 8 FEET IN SHEFFIELD

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012 /1155 AM MDT THU MAY 10 2012/

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IMPACT STATEMENT...

THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THIS MORNING
AND IS FOCUSED IN DAWSON...SCURRY...MITCHELL AND HOWARD COUNTIES. RADAR
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED 
FROM THE PUBLIC AND OBSERVING SYSTEMS. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND 
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN 
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF 
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.

.IMPACTS...
	* FLOODED ROADS...ARROYOS...AND URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.
	* REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.
	* OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. 
	* TEMPORARY POWER OUTAGES.
        * SUBMERGED VEHICLES WITH SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.REPORTS AS OF 1245 PM CDT...
 	* NEW RECORD DAILY RAINFALL AT MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 2.44
          INCHES.
	* OVER 2 INCHES IN THE CITIES OF MIDLAND...ODESSA...AND BIG SPRING.
	* RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN EAST PECOS COUNTY AND REAGAN 
          COUNTIES.
        * RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTH HOWARD COUNTY.
	* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BASIN.
        * RIVER GAUGE ON BEALS CREEK IN SOUTHWEST MITCHELL COUNTY HAS RISEN 
          2 FEET.
        * RIVER GAUGE ON PECOS RIVER AT SHEFFIELD HAS RISEN ABOUT 8 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

Some of today’s weather reports

(5/10/2012 8:46:23 AM) iembot: MAF issues Public Information Statement (PNS) … HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IMPACT STATEMENT …
(5/10/2012 8:47:05 AM) iembot: MAF continues Flash Flood Warning for Ector, Midland [TX] till 10:15 AM CDT
(5/10/2012 9:01:12 AM) iembot: MAF issues Flash Flood Warning for Glasscock, Howard, Martin [TX] till 12:00 PM CDT
(5/10/2012 9:12:12 AM) iembot: MAF continues Flash Flood Warning for Reagan [TX] till 10:45 AM CDT
(5/10/2012 9:16:00 AM) iembot: MAF issues Flash Flood Warning for Pecos, Terrell [TX] till 12:15 PM CDT
(5/10/2012 9:51:58 AM) iembot: Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #0773 (View text)
(5/10/2012 10:14:07 AM) iembot: NESDIS issues Satellite Precipitation Estimates
(5/10/2012 10:17:17 AM) iembot: MAF issues Flash Flood Warning for Ector, Midland [TX] till 1:15 PM CDT
(5/10/2012 10:22:03 AM) iembot: MAF: BIG Spring [Howard Co, TX] law enforcement reports FLOOD at 07:30 AM CDT — e 6th street under .5 to 3 feet of water.
(5/10/2012 10:22:03 AM) iembot: MAF: Iraan [Pecos Co, TX] trained spotter reports FLOOD at 07:55 AM CDT — 1.5 feet of running water at 10th and 11th street on branson.
(5/10/2012 10:22:04 AM) iembot: MAF: E Odessa [Ector Co, TX] broadcast media reports FLOOD at 08:17 AM CDT — hwy 80 and county club. 2 feet of moving water.
(5/10/2012 10:22:04 AM) iembot: MAF: Midland [Midland Co, TX] broadcast media reports FLOOD at 08:32 AM CDT — princeton and garfield. woman trapped in car.
(5/10/2012 10:22:05 AM) iembot: MAF: Midland [Midland Co, TX] broadcast media reports FLOOD at 08:37 AM CDT — scharbauer and lamesa. flooding in streets.
(5/10/2012 10:22:07 AM) iembot: MAF: Sheffield [Pecos Co, TX] fire dept/rescue reports FLOOD at 09:03 AM CDT — river rose 2 feet and is rising along the pecos river. water to curbs in city.
(5/10/2012 10:45:53 AM) iembot: MAF expires Flash Flood Warning for Reagan [TX]
(5/10/2012 11:29:13 AM) iembot: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Convective Slight Risk for portions of MAF’s area
(11:45:53 AM) iembot: MAF issues Flash Flood Warning for Mitchell [TX] till 3:45 PM CDT
(11:51:43 AM) iembot: MAF issues Areal Flood Advisory for Scurry [TX] till 2:45 PM CDT
(11:52:26 AM) iembot: MAF expires Flash Flood Warning for Glasscock, Howard, Martin [TX]
(11:52:59 AM) iembot: Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #0774 (View text)

We have a chance!

Within forecast area: There is a 20% chance of spotter activation This afternoon

Hazardous Weather Outlook:
Issued at 5:00 AM CDT, Fri Oct 7, 2011
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INCREASING TO LIKELY TONIGHT. MOST STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A MALJAMAR TO ALPINE LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING… PRIMARILY ACROSS LEA COUNTY… THE UPPER TRANS PECOS… AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. OVERNIGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

Current Spotter briefing from National Weather Service

from http://www.jimmorgan.us

Issued at 2:14 PM CDT, Thu Oct 6, 2011
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BRING NEAR OR BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS…AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS…VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR…AND MARFA PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE SPARKS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TATUM…PECOS…ALPINE…

LAJITAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS…HAIL… FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES…AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

Pictures from tonight’s psuedo-weather

Even as I type this Skywarn still has a 30% chance of being activated this evening. I doubt it will happen. The dry line is driving back west and a this moment the home county is basking in some hot evening sunlight. There is activity brewing to the west and north of our county and the radar looks real weird to me right now so who knows? Maybe a storm or two could develop.

These pics were taken from my cellphone. They may not be the best pics in the world but I find that for those of us who live mobile lives they serve the purpose at hand.

I hope you enjoy.

FOSS, ham radio and Skywarn

As many of you may be aware I am a ham radio operator and that I am involved in the National Weather Service’s Skywarn program.

Some others of you are aware that I switched my computer over to a complete free and open source system (FOSS) a few days ago.

Ham radio and FOSS go hand in hand. Both are about experimenting, trial and error, and tweaking things until they work.

The above picture is from a FOSS Automatic Packet Reporting System (APRS) program called Xastir. APRS is used by hams primarily to show the location of various vehicle or points of interest or emergency. We use it to track both storms and storm spotters in our Skywarn activities.

In this particular set-up I am running maps from both the National Weather Service and TIGER maps from the US Government. As both sets of maps are from the government they are automatically in the public domain. You will notice some weather radar on the pic as well. That is fed to the program via the internet. The radar being from the government it is public domain as well.

A complete working APRS set-up that cost me nothing moneywise except for hardware and it has highly detailed street maps (which are not fully loaded in this pic) and weather radar to boot. How cool is that?

haiku 98 skywarn 2

Thunderstorms abate
Northern breeze brings in the cold-
Dove fly in a flock

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