SEVERE T-STORM WATCH 301 for most of West Texas Tonight

by Jim Morgan

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 900 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DRYDEN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 300…

DISCUSSION…STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND EAST OF WEST TX/ERN NM DRYLINE WILL LIKELY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX AND NM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL BY EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS DESPITE RATHER AMBIGUOUS/NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. SFC TO 6KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25KT WITH POCKETS NEAR 30KT SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINALLY ORGANIZED AND SOME PERSISTENT CELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST POTENTIAL FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER OUTFLOW DOMINATE CELLS.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23015.

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